FIFA World Cup 2026 · Live Forecast

Who wins the
World Cup?

GAFFER rates every national team from 150 years of international results, blends in Transfermarkt squad value, turns it into goal expectations with a Dixon-Coles model, and plays the tournament out 50,000 times. These are the odds it spits back — updated as the games are played.

Simulations

0/72

Group games

0/32

Knockout games

Teams

0.00

Goals / game

×0.00

Home edge

Current favorite#1

Spain

UEFA · Group H · Elo 2390

0.0%to lift the trophy

Reach final

Semis

Make KO

The full board

Title & advancement odds

#	Team
01	SpainUEFA · Grp H	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2390
02	AlgeriaCAF · Grp J	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1854
03	ArgentinaCONMEBOL · Grp J	0.0%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2283
04	AustraliaAFC · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1910
05	AustriaUEFA · Grp J	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1927
06	BelgiumUEFA · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2058
07	Bosnia and HerzegovinaUEFA · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1764
08	BrazilCONMEBOL · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2115
09	CanadahostCONCACAF · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1864
10	Cape VerdeCAF · Grp H	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1666
11	ColombiaCONMEBOL · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2098
12	CroatiaUEFA · Grp L	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1938
13	CuraçaoCONCACAF · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1655
14	Czech RepublicUEFA · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1744
15	DR CongoCAF · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1803
16	EcuadorCONMEBOL · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1954
17	EgyptCAF · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1846
18	EnglandUEFA · Grp L	0.0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2257
19	FranceUEFA · Grp I	0.0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2196
20	GermanyUEFA · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1988
21	GhanaCAF · Grp L	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1648
22	HaitiCONCACAF · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1721
23	IranAFC · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1872
24	IraqAFC · Grp I	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1655
25	Ivory CoastCAF · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1857
26	JapanAFC · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1994
27	JordanAFC · Grp J	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1717
28	MexicohostCONCACAF · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1982
29	MoroccoCAF · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2042
30	NetherlandsUEFA · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	2070
31	New ZealandOFC · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1686
32	NorwayUEFA · Grp I	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	1990
33	PanamaCONCACAF · Grp L	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1780
34	ParaguayCONMEBOL · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1934
35	PortugalUEFA · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2142
36	QatarAFC · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1580
37	Saudi ArabiaAFC · Grp H	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1747
38	ScotlandUEFA · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1806
39	SenegalCAF · Grp I	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1889
40	South AfricaCAF · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1728
41	South KoreaAFC · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1860
42	SwedenUEFA · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1860
43	SwitzerlandUEFA · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2076
44	TunisiaCAF · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1648
45	TurkeyUEFA · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1837
46	United StateshostCONCACAF · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1908
47	UruguayCONMEBOL · Grp H	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1964
48	UzbekistanAFC · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1752

Cells show probability of reaching each stage · sort by any column · 48 teams

Who wins theWorld Cup?

Title & advancement odds

Who wins the
World Cup?