FIFA World Cup 2026 · Live Forecast

Who wins the
World Cup?

GAFFER rates every national team from 150 years of international results, blends in Transfermarkt squad value, turns it into goal expectations with a Dixon-Coles model, and plays the tournament out 50,000 times. These are the odds it spits back — updated as the games are played.

Simulations

0/72

Group games

0/32

Knockout games

Teams

0.00

Goals / game

×0.00

Home edge

Current favorite#1

Spain

UEFA · Group H · Elo 2333

0.0%to lift the trophy

Reach final

Semis

Make KO

The full board

Title & advancement odds

#	Team
01	SpainUEFA · Grp H	53.4%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2333
02	ArgentinaCONMEBOL · Grp J	46.6%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2307
03	AlgeriaCAF · Grp J	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1860
04	AustraliaAFC · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1922
05	AustriaUEFA · Grp J	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1903
06	BelgiumUEFA · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2051
07	Bosnia and HerzegovinaUEFA · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1693
08	BrazilCONMEBOL · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2102
09	CanadahostCONCACAF · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1854
10	Cape VerdeCAF · Grp H	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1711
11	ColombiaCONMEBOL · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2110
12	CroatiaUEFA · Grp L	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1961
13	CuraçaoCONCACAF · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1602
14	Czech RepublicUEFA · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1770
15	DR CongoCAF · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1831
16	EcuadorCONMEBOL · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1975
17	EgyptCAF · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1870
18	EnglandUEFA · Grp L	0.0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2177
19	FranceUEFA · Grp I	0.0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%	2216
20	GermanyUEFA · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	2002
21	GhanaCAF · Grp L	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1700
22	HaitiCONCACAF · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1673
23	IranAFC · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1898
24	IraqAFC · Grp I	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1667
25	Ivory CoastCAF · Grp E	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1863
26	JapanAFC · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1993
27	JordanAFC · Grp J	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1722
28	MexicohostCONCACAF · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2036
29	MoroccoCAF · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2047
30	NetherlandsUEFA · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	2070
31	New ZealandOFC · Grp G	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1669
32	NorwayUEFA · Grp I	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2042
33	PanamaCONCACAF · Grp L	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1785
34	ParaguayCONMEBOL · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1909
35	PortugalUEFA · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	2075
36	QatarAFC · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1533
37	Saudi ArabiaAFC · Grp H	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1708
38	ScotlandUEFA · Grp C	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1836
39	SenegalCAF · Grp I	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1894
40	South AfricaCAF · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1701
41	South KoreaAFC · Grp A	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1856
42	SwedenUEFA · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	1816
43	SwitzerlandUEFA · Grp B	0.0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	2029
44	TunisiaCAF · Grp F	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1670
45	TurkeyUEFA · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1928
46	United StateshostCONCACAF · Grp D	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%	1858
47	UruguayCONMEBOL · Grp H	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1940
48	UzbekistanAFC · Grp K	0.0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1729

Cells show probability of reaching each stage · sort by any column · 48 teams

Who wins theWorld Cup?

Title & advancement odds

Who wins the
World Cup?