GAFFER
The most likely road to the trophy

Bracket

The knockout bracket as it stands: decided ties show the real score and winner; open ties show each side's head-to-head win odds — the two add to 100% — with the favourite advancing to fill the next round. Hover a projected slot to see the other teams that could land there. Built from 50,000 simulations.

14
Germany
Winner Grp E
1
19
Paraguay
3rd place
1P
4
France
Winner Grp I
3
27
Sweden
3rd place
0
39
South Africa
Runner-up Grp A
0
25
Canada
Runner-up Grp B
1
9
Netherlands
Winner Grp F
1
11
Morocco
Runner-up Grp C
1P
5
Portugal
Runner-up Grp K
2
18
Croatia
Runner-up Grp L
1
1
Spain
Winner Grp H
3
20
Austria
Runner-up Grp J
0
22
United States
Winner Grp D
2
35
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3rd place
0
10
Belgium
Winner Grp G
3
23
Senegal
3rd place
2
19
Paraguay
0
4
France
1
25
Canada
0
11
Morocco
3
5
Portugal
0
1
Spain
1
22
United States
1
10
Belgium
4
4
France
2
11
Morocco
0
1
Spain
2
10
Belgium
1
4
France
0
1
Spain
2
Final
1
Spain
1
2
Argentina
0
WORLD CUPProjected champion
Spain
52%
to win the final100% title odds
3
England
1
2
Argentina
2
13
Norway
1
3
England
2
2
Argentina
3
8
Switzerland
1
6
Brazil
1
13
Norway
2
15
Mexico
2
3
England
3
30
Egypt
2
2
Argentina
3
8
Switzerland
0P
7
Colombia
0
6
Brazil
Winner Grp C
2
12
Japan
Runner-up Grp F
1
28
Ivory Coast
Runner-up Grp E
1
13
Norway
Runner-up Grp I
2
15
Mexico
Winner Grp A
2
17
Ecuador
3rd place
0
3
England
Winner Grp L
2
33
DR Congo
3rd place
1
21
Australia
Runner-up Grp D
1
30
Egypt
Runner-up Grp G
1P
2
Argentina
Winner Grp J
3
43
Cape Verde
Runner-up Grp H
2
8
Switzerland
Winner Grp B
2
29
Algeria
3rd place
0
7
Colombia
Winner Grp K
1
47
Ghana
3rd place
0

Decided matches show the final score (winner highlighted, P = won on penalties) and the real winner advances. Open matches show the two sides' head-to-head win odds (they add to 100%); there the favourite advances to fill the next round. Grey number = strength seed (Elo rank). Hover or focus a projected slot to see the other teams that could land there; Escape dismisses.

Round-by-round survival

Advancement funnel

Every team's chance of reaching each stage, narrowing toward the champion.

R3228
Spain100%
Algeria100%
Argentina100%
Australia100%
Austria100%
Belgium100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%
Brazil100%
Canada100%
Cape Verde100%
Colombia100%
Croatia100%
DR Congo100%
Ecuador100%
Egypt100%
England100%
France100%
Germany100%
Ghana100%
Ivory Coast100%
Japan100%
Mexico100%
Morocco100%
Netherlands100%
Norway100%
Paraguay100%
Portugal100%
Senegal100%
R1616
Spain100%
Argentina100%
Belgium100%
Brazil100%
Canada100%
Colombia100%
Egypt100%
England100%
France100%
Mexico100%
Morocco100%
Norway100%
Paraguay100%
Portugal100%
Switzerland100%
United States100%
QF8
Spain100%
Argentina100%
Belgium100%
England100%
France100%
Morocco100%
Norway100%
Switzerland100%
SF4
Spain100%
Argentina100%
England100%
France100%
FINAL2
Spain100%
Argentina100%
CHAMP1
Spain100%

Each column: probability of reaching that round, across 50,000 simulations. Hover or focus a team to trace it through the bracket; Escape clears. Teams below 0.2% in a round are hidden.