GAFFER
The most likely road to the trophy

Bracket

The knockout bracket as it stands: decided ties show the real score and winner; open ties show each side's head-to-head win odds — the two add to 100% — with the favourite advancing to fill the next round. Hover a projected slot to see the other teams that could land there. Built from 50,000 simulations.

14
Germany
Winner Grp E
1
21
Paraguay
3rd place
1P
3
France
Winner Grp I
3
33
Sweden
3rd place
0
40
South Africa
Runner-up Grp A
0
30
Canada
Runner-up Grp B
1
8
Netherlands
Winner Grp F
1
10
Morocco
Runner-up Grp C
1P
7
Portugal
Runner-up Grp K
2
17
Croatia
Runner-up Grp L
1
1
Spain
Winner Grp H
3
22
Austria
Runner-up Grp J
0
28
United States
Winner Grp D
2
42
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3rd place
0
9
Belgium
Winner Grp G
3
24
Senegal
3rd place
2
21
Paraguay
0
3
France
1
30
Canada
0
10
Morocco
3
7
Portugal
0
1
Spain
1
28
United States
1
9
Belgium
4
3
France
2
10
Morocco
0
1
Spain
2
9
Belgium
1
3
France
0
1
Spain
2
Final
1
Spain
53%
2
Argentina
47%
WORLD CUPProjected champion
Spain
53%
to win the final53.4% title odds
4
England
1
2
Argentina
2
11
Norway
1
4
England
2
2
Argentina
3
13
Switzerland
1
6
Brazil
1
11
Norway
2
12
Mexico
2
4
England
3
25
Egypt
2
2
Argentina
3
13
Switzerland
0P
5
Colombia
0
6
Brazil
Winner Grp C
2
15
Japan
Runner-up Grp F
1
26
Ivory Coast
Runner-up Grp E
1
11
Norway
Runner-up Grp I
2
12
Mexico
Winner Grp A
2
16
Ecuador
3rd place
0
4
England
Winner Grp L
2
32
DR Congo
3rd place
1
20
Australia
Runner-up Grp D
1
25
Egypt
Runner-up Grp G
1P
2
Argentina
Winner Grp J
3
38
Cape Verde
Runner-up Grp H
2
13
Switzerland
Winner Grp B
2
27
Algeria
3rd place
0
5
Colombia
Winner Grp K
1
41
Ghana
3rd place
0

Decided matches show the final score (winner highlighted, P = won on penalties) and the real winner advances. Open matches show the two sides' head-to-head win odds (they add to 100%); there the favourite advances to fill the next round. Grey number = strength seed (Elo rank). Hover or focus a projected slot to see the other teams that could land there; Escape dismisses.

Round-by-round survival

Advancement funnel

Every team's chance of reaching each stage, narrowing toward the champion.

R3228
Spain100%
Argentina100%
Algeria100%
Australia100%
Austria100%
Belgium100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%
Brazil100%
Canada100%
Cape Verde100%
Colombia100%
Croatia100%
DR Congo100%
Ecuador100%
Egypt100%
England100%
France100%
Germany100%
Ghana100%
Ivory Coast100%
Japan100%
Mexico100%
Morocco100%
Netherlands100%
Norway100%
Paraguay100%
Portugal100%
Senegal100%
R1616
Spain100%
Argentina100%
Belgium100%
Brazil100%
Canada100%
Colombia100%
Egypt100%
England100%
France100%
Mexico100%
Morocco100%
Norway100%
Paraguay100%
Portugal100%
Switzerland100%
United States100%
QF8
Spain100%
Argentina100%
Belgium100%
England100%
France100%
Morocco100%
Norway100%
Switzerland100%
SF4
Spain100%
Argentina100%
England100%
France100%
FINAL2
Spain100%
Argentina100%
CHAMP2
Spain53%
Argentina47%

Each column: probability of reaching that round, across 50,000 simulations. Hover or focus a team to trace it through the bracket; Escape clears. Teams below 0.2% in a round are hidden.