Who you draw, and how hard it is
Paths
The model plays the real bracket every simulation, so it knows who each team is likely to meet. Pick a team to trace its road to the final, and see who got the kindest — and cruelest — draw.
Round of 320%
Cape Verde100%88%
Round of 160%
Egypt100%75%
Quarter-final0%
Switzerland100%65%
Semi-final0%
England100%52%
Title0.0%to win it all
Top likely opponents per round · grey % = chance of the meeting · tinted pill = Argentina’s win probability if it happens
Kindest → cruelest draw
Path difficulty
| Team | Likely R32 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 2 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 3 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 4 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 5 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 6 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 7 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 8 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 9 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 10 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 11 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 12 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 13 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 14 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 15 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 16 | 0 | — | 0% | |
| 17 | 0 | Cape Verde100% | 100% | |
| 18 | 19 | Ghana100% | 0% | |
| 19 | 23 | DR Congo100% | 100% | |
| 20 | 23 | Egypt100% | 0% | |
| 21 | 24 | South Africa100% | 0% | |
| 22 | 26 | Paraguay100% | 0% | |
| 23 | 28 | Bosnia and Herzegovina100% | 0% | |
| 24 | 31 | Canada100% | 0% | |
| 25 | 35 | Mexico100% | 0% | |
| 26 | 36 | Sweden100% | 100% | |
| 27 | 40 | United States100% | 0% | |
| 28 | 45 | Senegal100% | 100% | |
| 29 | 48 | Algeria100% | 100% | |
| 30 | 48 | Australia100% | 0% | |
| 31 | 55 | Japan100% | 0% | |
| 32 | 58 | Ivory Coast100% | 100% | |
| 33 | 59 | Netherlands100% | 100% | |
| 34 | 59 | Morocco100% | 0% | |
| 35 | 60 | Switzerland100% | 0% | |
| 36 | 61 | Austria100% | 100% | |
| 37 | 61 | Ecuador100% | 0% | |
| 38 | 61 | Norway100% | 0% | |
| 39 | 62 | Colombia100% | 0% | |
| 40 | 70 | Croatia100% | 0% | |
| 41 | 73 | Belgium100% | 0% | |
| 42 | 84 | Germany100% | 0% | |
| 43 | 85 | Brazil100% | 0% | |
| 44 | 86 | Portugal100% | 0% | |
| 45 | 89 | Argentina100% | 0% | |
| 46 | 90 | England100% | 0% | |
| 47 | 91 | France100% | 0% | |
| 48 | 100 | Spain100% | 0% |
Difficulty 0 = kindest draw, 100 = cruelest — the expected strength of likely R32 + R16 opponents, relative to the field. Click a team to trace its road to the final.